I kept a blog during my sabbatical year when I taught in England. I now write a blog devoted to science and pseudoscience.

AIDS Denialism
Lies Other Science Teachers Told You
Large Hadron Collider Update
Bogus Medicine at Chemeketa Update
Bogus Medicine at Chemeketa
Life is Getting Better
Global Warming Skepticism
Chemeketa Biodiesel
Cold Fusion Confusion Again
Exercise Your Mind and Body
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc... NOT!
Creation and Intelligent Design at Chemeketa
Misuses of the Laws of Thermodynamics
Cold Fusion Confusion
Large Hadron Collider
More Enemas on Film
They Don't Want You to Know about This Enema
Facilitated Communication Jails Innocents
Kinesio Tape is Nothing Special
Dumb Career Advice

AIDS Denialism
November 5, 2009
When I was in high school in the '80s, Ryan White was in the news as a boy who had contracted HIV through a blood transfusion and developed AIDS. At the time, the cause of AIDS and its methods of transmission were not well understood, at least by the general public. As a result, there was a bitter legal and political battle over his enrollment in a public school. Much has changed since then and most people understand the cause (HIV) and its methods of transmission.

I honestly thought that any serious debate over the science of AIDS ended about 20 years ago. Unfortunately, there are some public figures who deny HIV as the cause of AIDS or promote cures that are not supported by science. One tragic example in the United States is Christine Maggiore, an HIV positive person who refused to take anti-retrovirals. Both she and her young daughter died of AIDS-related pneumonia. While this stupidity only hurt her family and those who were persuaded by her in the USA, the AIDS tragedy in southern Africa has been fuelled by Ms. Maggiore and like-minded AIDS deniers. There are 1.4 million AIDS orphans in South Africa alone.

Lies Other Science Teachers Told You
November 3, 2009
1) The error in every digital instrument is 1 of the last digit reported.
This is a reasonable guess, but it is often not true. Digital multi-meters and scales often list 2 of the last digit as their error. Digital thermometers are often +/- 1 °C while they report tenths of °C. Also, the error in using digital calipers will depend on the object you measure (how squishy) and how you measure (crooked or straight), so the error can vary tremendously. Stopwatches typically measure 1/100 s, but the user error is typically 1/10 s.
2) You can always interpolate using an analog instrument.
This is absurd. You could certainly build a meter stick with increments of 1/10 mm. Can a person seriously distinguish 1/100 mm (10 micrometers) with the naked eye? It’s a good idea to try to interpolate, but it’s not always possible.
3) Always round all your answers using the rules for significant digits.
This is not always a good idea. Let’s try the following calculation:
Given a = 1 and b = 7.0000000000000
a/b = 1/7.0000000000000 = 0.1428 = 0.1
(a/b)*b = 0.1*7.0000000000000 = 0.7
a = 0.7
So now we have 1 = 0.7. Let’s keep going:
Given c = 2.0000000000000
a*c = 0.7*2.0000000000000 = 1.4 = 1
(a*c)/c = 1/2.0000000000000 = 0.5
a = 0.5
So now we have 1 = 0.5. If you keep going, you can turn any number into any other number with a sufficient number of calculations while rounding as you go.  Don’t do it. You can round at the end, but don’t round in the middle of a calculation.

Large Hadron Collider Nearly Ready Again
October 21, 2009
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is nearly ready after several expensive and lengthy setbacks. Some interesting and stupid ideas have sprung up as people speculate on the possible results of this experiment.

Last year, Walter Wagner and Luis Sancho filed a lawsuit to prevent the startup of the LHC out of fear that it could make a black hole and kill everyone! Fortunately, the judge ruled that the court did not have jurisdiction. Even if it did have jurisdiction, the evidence that this could not happen (we'd already be dead if it could) is overwhelming.

Another development is that because of the bad luck in the particle physics community over the last 20 years, some actual scientists have hypothesized that the future Higgs bosons are coming back from the future and sabotaging the experiments that created them. I'm not sure if this is the basis of a science fiction story or some kind of hoax, but I don't think it is science.

Bogus Medicine at Chemeketa Update
September 24, 2009
It didn't take much digging for me to find out that the one natural remedy proven effective (see below) merely duplicates an existing drug. According to a post in Science-Based Medicine, the active ingredient in red rice yeast is "identical to the prescription drug Mevacor (lovastatin). So it isn’t an alternative to prescription drugs, it’s just an alternative way of providing the same thing." But it's worse. The dosages in red rice yeast aren't controlled (hey, it's natural so it must be safe!), so consumers have no way of assuring that the dose is large enough to be effective, but not too large to cause significant side effects. It is also more expensive than the drug itself.

Bogus Medicine at Chemeketa
September 15, 2009
Chemeketa is offering a non-credit class in "Medicinal Herbalism". This is certainly a misnomer. Evidence in support of "Medicinal Herbalism" is often based on tradition, anecdotes, or intuition. These could be the beginning of a scientific investigation, but they should not be used as evidence in support of these remedies. The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine publishes research summaries. Here are their featured results as of today:

Life is Getting Better
July 16, 2009
News reports of war, murder, and genocide give us the idea that violence is breaking out all over. The murder of one of my students in May helps feed this perception. While this and many others are horrible tragedies, is it really true that modern life is tougher? Let's look at some statistics collected by Steven Pinker of Harvard. The chance of male death from homicide in a hunter-gatherer society is between 15% and 60%. At this rate, there would have been 20 times as many homicides in the 20th century compared to what actually occurred. In other words, we would need 20 times the number of Hitlers, Stalins, Osama bin Ladens, Charles Mansons, etc. to keep up with our violent past. Modern life has many challenges (see below), but this is one we are surmounting.

Global Warming Skepticism
June 29, 2009
I believe that skepticism is a virtue. What this means to me is that the burden of proof should be placed on the person who makes a scientific claim, and a high standard of evidence should be demanded before an idea is deemed scientifically true.

There is currently a debate in the public sphere regarding whether or not human induced global warming exists, and if so, what we should do about it. It is outside my role as a scientist to make any judgment regarding what should be done about it, but it is within my role to discuss what is scientifically true regarding global warming.

Since I am not a climate scientist, I must look to experts in the field to produce summaries of the current science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) serves this purpose. Here are their latest findings:

• "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
• "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

Chemeketa Biodiesel
April 30, 2009
Some colleagues and I did some research on biodiesel:

Recent news reports state that Chemeketa plans to partner with industry and seek federal money to train students in biodiesel technology.[1] While the details of this proposal have been kept secret so we cannot make informed comments, we, as scientists, believe that there are many issues with the industry as a whole that we hope you will consider in making future decisions, especially in light of Chemeketa’s stated commitment to economic, social, and ecological sustainability. We have sought answers to the following broad questions regarding biodiesel:

1.    What is the net gain/loss of energy in production of biodiesel?
2.    What is the net effect on the environment, assuming a substitution with petroleum?
3.    What is the effect on food supply and prices?

What is the net gain/loss of energy in its production?

The answer to the first question is that there is clearly a net gain in energy from its production. The biodiesel energy output far exceeds the fossil fuel energy input (fertilizers, farm equipment, etc.) in a ratio of approximately 3 to 1.[2] While the net energy gain from ethanol production is small, the significant net energy gain from most sources of biodiesel has not been questioned by any reputable research.

But there is simply not enough farmland on the earth to grow enough biofuel crops to significantly change fossil fuel consumption.  Even with 1,000 barrels coming from each square mile of crops, and every inch of arable farm land in the world dedicated to growing biofuel crops, we would only be able to obtain 20% of the oil necessary to match world consumption today - and world consumption continues to increase as the amount of suitable arable farmland decreases.[3]

What is the net effect on the environment, assuming a substitution with petroleum?

This is a difficult question to answer because much depends on how markets respond to the diversion of food to fuel. If there are no conversions of wilderness to farms in response to a reduction in supply of food and there are no increases in energy use in response to an increase in supply of energy, then there will be a significant reduction in net CO₂ emissions.[4]

But there are serious concerns that the first assumption is unreasonable. A University of Minnesota report says that “land conversions pump out 17 to 423 times more carbon than the annual savings from replacing fossil fuels with the biofuels.”[5] One of the researchers said that “any biofuel that uses productive land is going to create more greenhouse gas emissions than it saves.”[6] Even if the United States or local economy does not convert wilderness to cultivated land in response to biofuel demands, the same cannot be said for other regions of the world.

What is the effect on food supply and prices?

While the market for food has many variables and cannot be predicted with certainty, any diversion of productive land to fuel (ex: canola, soy) necessarily reduces the supply of food in a global economy with both increasing population and increasing per capita consumption. Biodiesel technologies that do not do so are not commercially viable at this time (ex: algae, agricultural waste), not available locally (ex: jatropha[7]), or extremely small scale (ex: restaurant waste).

Conclusion

Significant biodiesel production using existing technology is neither ecologically nor economically sustainable. Further research should be done to explore methods that meet sustainability criteria.

Cold Fusion Confusion Again
April 21, 2009
It's more of the same, this time on 60 Minutes. Scientists generate "excess heat", can't explain it, and can't reproduce it. Some of their research is funded by private industry or government, and this is used as a reason to legitimize their work. The fact that research is funded by naive investors or government officials does not make it correct!  Martin Fleishmann, one of the original cold fusion researchers, was described in the program as being "hounded out of science", when in fact he and his team spent £12 million without finding anything new.

Exercise Your Mind and Body
February 25, 2009
There are numerous products that claim to use mental exercise to improve brain function. Some recent research shows that these products are more hype than substance. I say to buy these products and do these exercises if you enjoy them, but don't plan on avoiding Alzheimer's.

There does appear to be some evidence that recess is good for learning. What is unfortunate is that recess seems to be getting more limited and controlled. My 8 year old daughter is not allowed to run at recess during bad weather!

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc... NOT!
February 20, 2009
Many pseudoscientific claims are based on the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy. The Skeptic's Dictionary calls it "the mistaken notion that simply because one thing happens after another, the first event was a cause of the second event."

The Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine happens to be given at an age near that when signs of autism can first appear. This led some to believe that the MMR vaccine causes autism. The alleged causation had a plausible mechanism because the vaccine contained thiomersal, a preservative which contained mercury, a neurotoxin.

A very small study (12 patients) was conducted by Andrew Wakefield and others. The results were published in the prestigious UK journal The Lancet. It led to the conclusion that the MMR vaccine caused autism because 8 of the 12 patients were alleged to have developed autism symptoms within days of receiving the vaccine. Despite the small sample size and lack of replication by numerous larger and better studies, this led to lower percentages of people vaccinating their children in both the USA and UK. Despite the removal of thiomersal in many countries and states, autism rates continued to increase.

There have been some interesting developments in the last few weeks. A special court in the USA ruled against three families seeking compensation for claims of vaccine-induced autism. Ten of the original thirteen authors of the Lancet paper have removed their names, and Dr. Wakefield's original research has been found to be fraudulent.

What's sad is that children have died from measles in the UK and that could easily happen in the USA, should anti-vaccination trends continue. As OJ Simpson said, it's time to find the "real killers."

Creation and Intelligent Design (ID) at Chemeketa
February 11, 2009
"You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor." -Exodus 2:16

Chemeketa's Campus Crusade for Christ is presenting the movies "Icons of Evolution: Science or Myth?" and "Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed". My field is Physics, and I address its relationship with this "controversy" below. These movies make many false claims, and I'll let those with more expertise provide the evidence.

Refutations of Creation/ID Claims
Icons of Evolution? from the National Center for Science Education
Expelled Exposed from the National Center for Science Education
Index of Creationist Claims from TalkOrigins
15 Answers to Creationist Nonsense from Scientific American

Positive Evidence in Favor of Evolution 
Evolution FAQs from TalkOrigins
Understanding Evolution from UC Berkeley
15 Evolutionary Gems from Nature

If you would rather watch TV than read, you might want to see the NOVA program Intelligent Design on Trial. It discusses evolution and creation/ID in the context of the Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District trial, where two pro-creation/ID school board members lied under oath.

Misuses of the Laws of Thermodynamics
January 21, 2009
There are commonly held views among the general public that the laws of thermodynamics falsify the scientific theories of cosmic and biological evolution. These views are not supported by scientific evidence.

One view unsupported by evidence is that the big bang couldn’t possibly be correct because it violates the first law of thermodynamics. The claim is that there is obviously a lot of energy now and there couldn’t be any energy before the big bang. The total energy apparently increased thus violating the first law of thermodynamics.

For this alleged violation to be true, we must know both the total energy of the universe both before and after the big bang and show that they are different (putting aside objections that there is no such thing as “before the big bang”). No serious scientist claims to know with certainty the total energy of the universe “before the big bang.” But even if one assumes that the energy is zero “before the big bang”, a calculation of the total energy of the universe based on classical physics also yields a total energy of zero! This was shown in a paper written by E. Tryon in a 1973 article in the journal Nature (and not refuted to date). How can that be so with all the stuff moving around (kinetic energy), light energy, etc.? It turns out that the negative gravitational potential energy balances out the positive energy and the net sum is zero. A relativistic calculation of the current total energy of the universe is problematic, but it in no way yields a calculation that refutes the big bang through the first law. Even if we assume we can know the total energy of the universe both before the big bang and at the present time, there is no proven violation of the first law of thermodynamics.

Another view unsupported by evidence is that the second law of thermodynamics prohibits the evolution of chemicals to primitive organisms or of primitive organisms to more complex organisms, an apparent decrease in entropy.

There are two important objections to the "life violates the second law" argument. First, there is no calculation that shows that complex life forms are lower entropy than less complex forms or non-living things. Hand waving metaphors are no substitute for a proper calculation. Second, life forms are not closed systems. They continuously exchange energy and particles with their environments, so the second law has nothing to say about them unless you include their environments in the calculation. Evolution has not been proven to violate the second law of thermodynamics.

Cold Fusion Confusion
January 5, 2009 
Nuclear fusion is the process of two or more separate nuclei combining to form a new nucleus which is then held together by short range nuclear force. As the nuclei are positively charged and therefore electrically repulsive, fusion normally requires high speed (high temperature) to occur. For small atoms, this releases a great deal of energy and is of interest as a weapon (hydrogen bombs) and energy source. Progress on fusion as an energy source has been frustratingly slow.

In 1989, Stanley Pons and Martin Fleishmann from the University of Utah announced that they had created low temperature fusion using electrolysis of heavy water with a palladium cathode. Steven Jones at Brigham Young University did similar work. This work has characteristics of pseudoscience:

• The researchers took their work directly to the public before peer review.

• Most early attempts to replicate the work ended in failure.

• The field has not made significant changes or advances in the last 20 years.

• The field of research has retreated into a small group of "true believers" who complain that their work is being suppressed.

Portland State University's John Dash and his team performed some research on the topic. While I was there as an undergraduate from 1997 to 1999, I talked to his students and listed to their presentations. They avoided the term "cold fusion" and instead used the term "excess heat". I could never pin them down on what exactly one needed to do to produce it.

Pons and Fleishmann moved to France and spent £12 million on research without any definitive findings. Jones later became a founding member of "Scholars for 9/11 Truth" and was pushed out of BYU in 2007.

So what is the lesson here? I think that it was worthwhile for people to try these things, but I also think that these people exempted themselves from the rules of science. Being open-minded also means being open to the possibility that an experiment is faulty and a hypothesis is false.

Large Hadron Collider
December 1, 2008
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) lies on the border between France and Switzerland. Scientists plan to smash protons together at unprecedented speeds some time in 2009. This device is 17 miles in circumference and costs several billions dollars to build and run. This might seem like a very expensive and strange thing to do, but here are some of the possible physics problems that might be solved:

• Is there a Higgs boson, and if so, what are its properties? In other words, why do particles have mass?

• Are electromagnetic and nuclear forces different manifestations of a single force?

• What are the properties of dark matter and dark energy?

• Are there detectable spatial dimensions beyond three?

The unenthusiastic reader might respond with questions of practicality. How could these experiments possibly improve my life (provide cheaper fast food, make me better looking, make my car faster, etc.)? I have two responses:

• Scientific advances, such as in the field of quantum mechanics in the early 20th century, are the foundation for many important and practical technologies. The electron microscope, based on quantum mechanics, is an essential tool for medical research. The computer as we know it would not be possible without an understanding of quantum mechanics.

• Research in physics is inherently no more and no less important than research in other academic fields such as medieval literature, archaeology, philosophy, etc. These things should be studied because we want to know about them.

In other words, this research will probably be useful, and even if it isn't, we should do it anyway.

More Enemas on Film
November 11, 2008
A movie called The Beautiful Truth will open on Friday. This film claims that Gerson therapy, consisting of a special diet and coffee enemas, will cure cancer. The web site for the film directs the reader to www.gerson.org. I visited the “research” page and followed a few links.

 The first article’s abstract states, “there is almost no scientific support for this regimen.” The research itself consists of case studies of 6 (yes, you read that right) cancer patients. There was no control group. It was not double-blinded (sham coffee enemas). Another bit of research is a report on German army nutrition. It does not test or even mention Gerson therapy. Much of the research is self-published or published in popular magazines (no peer review). Is this the best the proponents can cite?

The American Cancer Society has the following to say about Gerson therapy:

• There have been no well-controlled studies published in the available medical literature that show the Gerson therapy is effective in treating cancer.

• Continued home use of enemas may cause the colon's normal function to weaken, worsening constipation problems and colitis.

This would be much funnier if it didn’t kill people. I hope that this is my last entry about enemas on film.

They Don't Want You to Know about This Enema
November 4, 2008
Salem's Progressive Film Series includes a documentary called Food Matters. I watched the trailer and visited their web site. Here are some of their own words:

Wow, those are some pretty extraordinary claims.  Of course, the producers don't really want to tell you either, because it will cost you $30 plus shipping to buy a DVD. If you do attend or purchase this film, be sure to look for the double-blind placebo-controlled studies published in peer-reviewed journals.

After switching to their prescribed diet which will cure your cancer and mental illness, you will of course need to "detoxify". The first step in this program, I swear I am not making this up, is to take some herbal laxatives (warning, unpleasant content) and then shove water up your butt. Have I sold you on this "natural" program, yet?

Food Matters reminds me of Kevin Trudeau, who sold a book called Natural Cures They Don't Want You to Know About. He was convicted of criminal fraud and fined $5 million.

Facilitated Communication Jails Innocents
October 29, 2008
Most bad science is basically unethical marketing. You have something that is useless or no better than anything else out there and you sell it at a premium. What's even worse than depriving people of their money is depriving people of their freedom.

Facilitated communication is a technique where someone with a communication disability (autism, etc.) receives help typing. This technique sounds wonderful, but it is controversial because there are questions about who is actually doing the communicating. Here is what the American Psychological Association has to say in 1994:

• Peer reviewed, scientifically based studies have found that the typed language output  attributed to the clients was directed or systematically determined by the therapists who provided facilitated assistance.

• Studies have repeatedly demonstrated that facilitated communication is not a scientifically valid technique for individuals with autism or mental retardation.

Despite these strong statements, this technique has been used to generate false accusations of abuse. Just last year, a man in Michigan was put in jail after an accusation generated by facilitated communication. It reminds me a lot of the "satanic ritual abuse" and "repressed memory" bullocks from years past. The only thing exposed by these accusations is the sick minds of the accusers.

Facilitated communication is wasting tax dollars, fleecing families of autistic people, and putting innocent people in jail.

Kinesio Tape is Nothing Special
October 23, 2008
Like many sports fans I watched a lot of the summer Olympics. Since the Americans won the gold medal in women's beach volleyball, the event was covered well and I was forced to watch for many hours. What you might have noticed was that Kerri Walsh was wearing a strange black thing on her injured shoulder. It is called Kinesio tape, which was developed by Kenzo Kase, a chiropractor. The profession of the developer immediately put my mental quack detector on red alert, so I've done some reading.

I went to their web site and found their "research" in support of their product. The first article is simply awful science. It consists of 9, yes you read that right, 9 people who had their blood flow measured before and after application of the tape. The blood flow increased in 5 out of 9 people, just above random chance. There was no mention of the uncertainty in the measurements. There were not control groups with other types of tape or no treatment.

It is further claimed that this "increased blood flow" will aid healing.  It makes me want to go to their store and heal their necks with a samurai sword.

I found one article critical of this tape. Needless to say, Kinesio tape "has not been shown to be any more effective than traditional taping or no treatment." Hey, that doesn't move merchandise!

Dumb Career Advice
October 20, 2008
I am starting a blog devoted to science and pseudoscience. What inspired me to start this was an article from cnn.com.

The article by Rachel Zupak discusses the supposed effect of zodiac sign on career. The article makes no mention of whether or not the results were statistically significant. How many people were surveyed? Can the results be reproduced? As usual, nearly everything said about every zodiac sign applies to everyone. Are you inquisitive? Wow, that's what your sign says! If you have common sense, are open-minded, and are resourceful, then you must be fill in your zodiac sign here. At least they should put the note "for entertainment purposes only" at the top of the article.

Another article by the same author on careerbuilder.com discusses how your favorite color determines your perfect job. The "evidence" consisted of the author taking the color preference test three times and confirming that the feedback was correct. The feedback consisted of the observation that she enjoys working independently, being creative, using her imagination, and constantly learning something new. We must be soul-mates or identical twins separated at birth because that describes me exactly. Wait, that describes you, too? Must have been identical triplets.

Science Online

New York Times: Science
New York Times: Tierney Lab
BBC News: Science
Science Daily
Slate: Human Nature
Statesman Journal: Science blog

Skeptics Online